Rick Janson
Methodology

How Rick reads a market.

Every working median, year-over-year trend, and market-temperature read on rickjanson.com is built from the same disciplined process - public MLS data filtered for arms-length closings, weighted by lot and execution, and reconciled against off-market context Rick sees through the Compass network.

Rick Janson, JD/MBA Realtor®
By Rick Janson, JD/MBA Realtor®
Compass · Denver Metro, Boulder County, and the Front Range Foothills
Reviewed · Methodology
Sources

Where the numbers come from.

  • Compass / REcolorado MLS
    Primary closed-and-active inventory feed for the Denver Metro and surrounding counties. All headline community medians on this site reference 90-day trailing closed comparables filtered for arms-length status.
  • Denver Metro Association of Realtors (DMAR)
    Monthly market-trends reports for regional context, supply-side indicators, and category-level price segmentation across the seven-county metro.
  • Colorado Division of Real Estate (CO DRE)
    Licensing-and-regulatory reference for any practice-specific context, plus annual real-estate-commission data on production and complaint trends.
  • U.S. Census American Community Survey (ACS)
    Demographic, income, and household-composition context used inside Community pages and where relevant on Region/County hubs.
  • Colorado Department of Local Affairs (DOLA)
    State-level population, housing-stock, and economic data used for cross-checking municipal-level claims.
  • National Association of Realtors® (NAR)
    National benchmarking context for any time a Denver-area number is positioned against a U.S.-wide read.
  • Rick's closed-comparable dataset
    A proprietary internal dataset of closings Rick has personally tracked, comped, or transacted across the practice's coverage area since 2018. Used for the 'Rick's Tracked Stat' line on Community pages.
Process

Five steps from raw MLS pull to a published market read.

  1. 01

    Closed-comparable pull

    Trailing 90-day closings from REcolorado / Compass MLS, filtered to arms-length transactions only. Non-arms-length, intra-family, and obvious-outlier closings are excluded before any aggregation.

  2. 02

    Lot, vintage, and condition stratification

    Each closing is tagged for lot tier, vintage band (pre-1940, 1940-1979, 1980-2004, 2005+), and condition tier (original, updated, renovated, ground-up). The working median is computed inside each strata and reconciled to the headline community median.

  3. 03

    Off-market reconciliation

    The MLS-derived working median is adjusted for off-market context Rick observes through the Compass network - private listings, pocket inventory, and known coming-soon stock that materially shifts a community's true working price.

  4. 04

    Temperature scoring

    Months of supply, sale-to-list ratio, and average days on market combine into a three-bucket qualitative score: competitive, balanced, or favorable-to-buyers. The label is directional; the raw inputs are visible on the page.

  5. 05

    Quarterly review

    The full site-wide stats set is reviewed and re-published every quarter. Per-page verification dates reflect the most recent review. Material in-quarter shifts (a 200+ bps movement in working median, a temperature flip, or a comparable-set shock) trigger an off-cycle update.

Limitations

What's not in the data.

Honest market reads require honest disclosure of what the public dataset cannot capture. Rick reconciles every published number against the items below before signing off on a working median, year-over-year trend, or temperature label.

  • Off-market transactions
    A meaningful share of luxury Denver and Boulder activity moves privately, never touching the MLS. Those trades shift comparable sets and tier ceilings, but appear in published medians only after similar properties close on-market. Off-market context is sourced through the Compass network and applied directionally, never as a substitute for closed comparables.
  • Concession structure and seller credits
    Headline closing prices do not reflect rate buydowns, seller-paid closing costs, repair credits, or post-close work allowances. In a softer market these can represent 1 - 4% of effective price. Rick's working medians are weighted toward transactions where concession data is verifiable.
  • Lot character and execution quality
    Two homes with identical square footage on the same street can transact 25% apart on the basis of lot, view, exposure, finish level, and architectural provenance. Working price-per-square-foot figures are useful only when filtered to peer execution.
  • Distressed and intra-family transfers
    Non-arms-length transfers, estate sales, and distressed dispositions are filtered out of working medians. They appear in raw MLS pulls and can distort headline averages reported elsewhere.
  • Lag in public records
    County assessor and DOLA datasets typically run 60 - 120 days behind the MLS. Where the two disagree, the more recent MLS-confirmed transaction is treated as authoritative.
Versioning

Review cadence and changelog.

The full site is reviewed quarterly against fresh REcolorado MLS pulls and DMAR market trend reports. Per-page dateModified values reflect the most recent review for that specific market. Off-cycle updates are triggered by material moves (greater than 200 bps in working median, a temperature flip, or a comparable-set shock).

  • Q2 2026 review (current) - reviewed May 5, 2026
    Working medians, year-over-year trends, and temperature scores re-pulled across all 67 covered markets. Site-wide JSON-LD graph rebuilt with updated datePublished and dateModified values. Per-page lastmod stamps in /sitemap.xml regenerated from data fields.
  • Q1 2026 review - reviewed February 2026
    Initial publication of the methodology page, "Sources & Methodology" sections added to all community pages, and the structured-data graph consolidated to a single canonical Person and RealEstateAgent entity referenced by @id across all pages.
  • Q4 2025 baseline
    Closed-comparable dataset rebuilt from REcolorado pulls covering 2023 - 2025, used as the foundation for working medians and the SoftwareApplication-style market temperature scoring rubric.
FAQ

Common questions on the methodology.

  • What data sources does Rick use to read a market?

    Public sources include Compass and REcolorado MLS for closed and active inventory, the Denver Metro Association of Realtors (DMAR) and CO DRE for regional context, U.S. Census ACS and Colorado DOLA for demographic and population context, and NAR for national-scale benchmarking. Proprietary inputs include Rick's closed-comparable dataset and Compass's network-level off-market context.

  • How does Rick choose comparables?

    Closed comparables are filtered for lot character, vintage band, condition tier, and architectural execution before any price weighting is applied. The headline median for any given community on this site is the working median Rick uses internally - not a raw MLS sold-mean - and reflects the 90-day trailing closed set after non-arms-length and outlier filtering.

  • How fresh are the numbers on this site?

    Site-wide stats are reviewed quarterly. Each Community page footer carries a verification date; the Q2 2026 cycle reflects closings through April 2026 with a one-month settlement lag. Off-market context is current within the calendar week.

  • What does 'market temperature' mean on this site?

    Market temperature reduces three signals (months of supply, sale-to-list ratio band, and average days on market) into a single qualitative read: competitive (low supply, near-or-above list, fast DOM), balanced (typical supply, at-list, normal DOM), or favorable-to-buyers (extended supply, below-list, slower DOM). The label is directional - the underlying numbers are on the page.

  • Is this investment, legal, or tax advice?

    No. Everything on rickjanson.com is real estate market commentary and advisory work, not legal, tax, accounting, lending, appraisal, or securities advice. Material decisions should be reviewed with your attorney, CPA, lender, and other qualified professionals.

Request a private market read.

For a confidential, address-specific read on any Denver Metro, Boulder County, or Foothills market - including comparables, off-market context, and a candid take on timing - schedule a 30-minute consultation.

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